RP Data-Rismark Property Index
RP Data Ltd Announcement - 3rd September 2007
- Housing market experiences strong rebound with 6.6% growth during first half of 2007 - affordability continues to deteriorate
- Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Darwin and Sydney all register striking increases in both house and unit prices
In spite of the gloomy forecasts of some commentators, the latest RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Index results show that the Australian residential property market has continued to experience a strong rebound during the first 6 months of 2007 with property prices growing by an impressive 6.6% during this period (see Tables 1, 2 and 3 below).
The growth in property prices during the first half of 2007 comprised a 6.0% increase in the price of houses and an 8.5% increase in the price of units. These rates of growth are significantly higher than the historical averages registered for the Australian market over the last 25 years.
RP Data CEO, Graham Mirabito, said "RP Data-Rismark estimates that the median value of an Australian property has increased to $432,365, pushing the great Australian dream beyond the grasp of a growing number of families. The median house price in Australia is now $459,402 while the median unit price is $365,322."
"The fact is that home ownership remains incredibly important to many Australian households and the evidence indicates that despite the recent interest rate rises families are still willing to commit a growing share of their income to purchasing new properties and servicing debt" Mr Mirabito said.
In the first half of 2007, house prices increased strikingly in Adelaide (11.6%), Brisbane (10.6%), Melbourne (7.9%), and Darwin (9.0%). Sydney houses have also experienced their strongest growth in years, with a 3.4% increase during the six months to 30 June 2007. Consistent with RP Data-Rismark's previous forecasts, the Perth housing market has seen a turnaround with sluggish growth of just 1.5%.
Sydney and Perth remain the two most expensive markets to live in with median house prices of $559,770 and $505,115, respectively. They are followed by the comparatively less expensive cities of Brisbane ($411,491), Melbourne ($402,817) and Adelaide ($359.504).
Perhaps reflecting the affordability of units compared with houses, the value of units has experienced even stronger growth than houses with a spectacular 8.5% rise during the first half of 2007. The growth in unit prices has been propelled by substantial increases in the major capital cities during the year-to-date, including Adelaide (21.9%), Brisbane (15.7%), Melbourne (10.2%), Darwin (14.2%), Perth (8.6%) and Sydney (4.7%).
Perth is far and away the most costly unit market, with a median unit value of $460,549, followed by Sydney ($407,181), Melbourne ($322,470), Brisbane ($301,264) Adelaide ($280,908) and Darwin ($278,538).
Christopher Joye, Managing Director of Rismark International, said "While some commentators have been forecasting a housing market contraction over the next 5 years, Rismark has been insistent in projecting, outside of WA, a robust rebound in 2007/2008. The striking recovery in the national housing market over the last six months vindicates our forecasts and can be attributed to a fundamental discount between the demand for new housing and the availability of supply."
"Looking forward, the inevitable outcome of the rising cost of housing in this country is a gradual shift towards increasing densities and a change in our understanding of the "great Australian dream": the notion of a free-standing home in the 'burbs is destined to become a historical footnote for many families with semi-detached and apartment style living emerging as the predominant form of tenure for first time buyers. This should not, in and of itself, be viewed as a bad thing" Mr Joye said.
The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Indices benefit from exclusive access to the most comprehensive property database in Australian and NZ, which is owned by RP Data Limited (ASX: RPX). RP Data spends over $5 million annually collecting new property information and has amassed a database comprising over 88 million property data records covering around 98% of all homes. Over 70% of Australian real estate agents subscribe to RP Data's property information services.
In a recent independent review of the efficacy of the RP Data-Rismark Indices, the credit rating agency Moody's concluded "The suite of indexes calculated by RP Data-Rismark represents a significant improvement in the quality of housing price statistics available in Australia." For more information on the indices, please go to http://www.rpdata.com/indices
Rental yields are a strong 5 per cent in Brisbane, with yields still high in Canberra, Darwin and Adelaide, while there has been a recent decline in Melbourne because of strong price growth. Evidence of the much talked about rental increases in Sydney is now showing through in yields.
Dr Matthew Hardman, Rismark's Head of Research, said " Units have done better than houses in Sydney and Melbourne in the past 12 months. Previously, house price returns had been better than units and now units are catching up again. Brisbane continues to show superior returns on houses than units and we believe that lack of supply will make this a persistent phenomenon in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane."
"What is interesting is that only the more expensive areas of Sydney and Melbourne have shown recent growth. We expect this to continue as supply can't meet demand in these areas as long as the economy is buoyant.
"Outer metropolitan areas where supply problems are easier to alleviate have shown little or no recent growth. Increasing supply will benefit many prospective buyers in these areas by reining in future growth. The flipside is that price growth in more affluent areas will further diverge from the rest", he added.


* The July 07 year-to-date results are "indicative" only, since they rely on a smaller sample of property sales data and do not reflect the MORE comprehensive sales database used to publish the "final" figures of June 07 YTD.

* The July 07 year-to-date results are "indicative" only, since they rely on a smaller sample of property sales data and do not reflect the MORE comprehensive sales database used to publish the "final" figures of June 07 YTD.

Detailed Capital City Analysis
Sydney, on the back of a 4% increase in sales volume for the June quarter, posted price growth of 2.1% and 2.7% for houses and units respectively in the June quarter, with the average property taking 33-35 days to sell. Over the last 3 months prices in the Inner West, Inner City and Northern Beaches increased by more than 4%. Investors are also doing well out of the tight Sydney rental market with rental yields between 4-5% for the June 2007 quarter. The Hunter region and Wollongong reported modest increases over the last six months with prices rising by 2-3% for houses and units.
Melbourne posted consistent price increases since the start of the year. To June 2007, Melbourne house prices increased 7.9% while unit prices increased 10.2%. Over the last 12 months house and unit prices in Inner City Melbourne, Moreland City, Boroondara City, East Middle Melbourne and Southern Melbourne increased by over 10%. Auction clearance rates are also up in Melbourne with over 46.6% of house auctions and 51.1% of unit auctions resulting in a sale.
Brisbane also continues to perform strongly. Over the last 12 months Brisbane houses increased 14.7% while units increased 20%. RP Data-Rismark expects that Brisbane will deliver superior returns over next 5 years unless the housing supply deficiencies in Brisbane are remedied.
Adelaide reported the largest June quarter price increase of the capital cities, with house prices increasing 8.4% and unit prices increasing 14.5%. Sales volumes also increased 11% in the June 2007 quarter. Adelaide remains Australia's cheapest city, with Port Pirie West, Gladstone, Port Augusta, and Moonta proving the best budget buys. Adelaide is also returning strong yields for property investors, 4.7% for houses and 5.7% for units this June quarter. This is possibly in response to the influx of students identifying Adelaide as an attractive and cheaper alternative to Australia's other more expensive capital cities.
In line with the recent turnaround, properties in Perth remain "on the market" for approximately 51-66 days, well above the market norm during Perth's boom times in 2006 which saw property being listed for only 30 days.
For more detailed information on the RP Data-Rismark Indices, please go to http://www.rpdata.com/indices/. Media comment can be obtained from Graham Mirabito (RP Data) or Dr Matthew Hardman (Rismark International).
Background on RP Data:
Established in 1991, ASX-listed RP Data (ASX: RPX) is the largest supplier of commercial and residential property information services throughout Australia and New Zealand and is the first and only provider of only provider of hedonic based Property Indices and AVM's. Subscription clients to RP Data's property information service include over 8,500 real estate agents, valuers, property developers, financial institutions and government departments. RP Data is also the largest supplier of property reports to Australians with over 600,000 property reports issued each year. With an annual investment of more than $5 million in databases, RP Data has more than 88 million property data records covering 12 million properties in Australia and New Zealand including ownership records; 12 million property attribute records; 3.6 million property features records; 16 million property sales records; 12 million property maps; 22 million property photos; and 10 million "on the market" property listing records. For more information visit www.rpdata.com.
Background on Rismark International:
Rismark is a global real estate investment business that specialises in quantitative research, funding, and securitisation. Rismark is a private company owned by management and a number of leading financial services companies. Rismark has executed exclusive strategic agreements with organisations such as Adelaide Bank, PMI Mortgage Insurance, GFI Group (NASDAQ: GFIG), Wizard Home Loans, RP Data Limited, and others. Rismark's management team has extensive experience in quantitative residential real estate research and is augmented by a Global Research Advisory Board comprising of eminent academics from Sydney University, Melbourne University, and Yale. For more information visit www.rismark.com.au.